Madeline, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

723
FXUS65 KREV 202213
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds with increasing shower chances tonight.

* Strong winds return Sunday, with heavy rains likely early Sunday
  through Monday that could lead to localized flooding concerns.
  Heavy wet snow in the Sierra above 8000-8500 feet.

* Another round of stormy conditions could bring significant rain
  and snow Tuesday into Christmas Day, but confidence in the
  details remains mixed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are present on radar this afternoon along the
western slopes of the Sierra. Any accumulation this afternoon
will be light as we await the heavier precipitation arriving late
tonight into Sunday morning. All the while, high snow levels will
work to keep snowflakes flying above 9000 feet through early
Sunday afternoon, keeping snow totals limited to the highest
peaks. Breezy winds continue, with gusts to 80 mph expected along
the ridges.

Heaviest precip is expected Sunday through Monday, mainly from the
Tahoe Basin northward. With the influx of moisture from this
atmospheric river system, rainfall totals are quite high with QPF
values of 2.5-3" along the crest. This will lead to minor flood
concerns; more details in the Hydrology section below. Sierra
Front communities can expect light rain Sunday with showers
reaching into the northern areas of Mono county.

Overnight Sunday into Monday, snow levels are expected to drop to
around 7500-8000 feet for the Tahoe Basin, with 8000-8500 feet for
Mono county. This will allow for more snowfall accumulations along
the peaks, with the NBM 50th percentile showing up to 2 feet in
localized areas. However, SLR`s remain low (5-8:1) so snow will
be wetter and slushier in nature. Despite this, any snow that
accumulates on higher passes will create slippery conditions,
especially ahead of the Monday AM commute.

One more thing for Sunday; I know, what else could there be? The
700 mb jet brings winds up to 75 kt Sunday afternoon, which would
produce ridgetop gusts of at least 100 mph and valley gusts
upwards of 50-65 mph. Like Friday, wind prone locations may see
localized gusts of 70+ mph. As of now, there is at least a 50%
chance for damaging (wind gusts 60+ mph) winds across much of the
Sierra Front (Reno-Carson City-Minden) and into portions of Mono
County, so we have issued a High Wind Warning for these areas, as
the most recent guidance showed a notable jump in wind speed
potential with downslope enhancement. Wind Advisories or Lake Wind
Advisories are in place for other portions of western NV and
eastern CA. This will bring difficult travel for high profile
vehicles, bumpy flights, and recreational concerns. If the
strongest winds coincide with precip, we could also see some
visibility concerns. Exhibit caution while driving late this
weekend.

Latest model guidance is trending Tuesday a bit drier than
previous model runs. However, precip is expected to continue in
the Sierra, though amounts will be light. Heading into the days
around Christmas, a strong low pressure system drops down from
British Columbia, bringing colder air than what we have this
weekend. This will bring snow levels around 7000 feet, increasing
the potential for heavy snow. However, the caveat with this is
that the left exit region of the subtropical jet is coupling with
the right entrance region of the polar jet. This is bringing lots
of instability and strong winds. That increase in instability is
favorable for spillover into W NV, though the wind might just "rip
the precip apart" and limit totals. Overall, there`s still plenty
of details to iron out.

-Giralte/HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

The forecast calls for LLWS at all area TAF sites today going into
tomorrow. KRNO/KCXP/KMEV see VFR conditions throughout the day
with mostly dry conditions ahead of rain chances beginning in the
late afternoon/evening that continue into Sunday. KTRK/KTVL have
sub-MVFR visibilities forecasted this evening, when rain chances
increase going into the night. Localized periods of LIFR
conditions likely with the heaviest precipitation. VCSH for KMMH
expects to continue into the afternoon with precipitation chances
returning overnight after a brief break in the evening. Enhanced
winds return to the forecast on Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front with precipitation chances continuing through at least
Monday.

-078/Giralte

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate to heavy rains will lead to significant rises on rivers and
streams Sunday into Monday most notably from Alpine County north
through Lassen County.

Minor flooding of small streams, urban and poor drainage areas and
rockfall in steep terrain are possible during any prolonged periods
of high intensity rainfall.

While no mainstem river flooding is currently forecast, the Susan
River near Susanville and the West Fork of the Carson near
Woodfords are currently expected to exceed action stage and minor
flooding can not be ruled out in these area. Additionally, the
latest forecast shows the Susan River approaching minor flood
stage as early as Sunday afternoon. Remain aware of the potential
for additional river and stream rises near Christmas Eve in large
mountain drainages below about 6000 feet like the Susan River. In
these areas additional rain and saturated conditions could lead
to fast rises and renewed flooding concerns. In other areas,
lowering snow levels will reduce flooding concerns into next week.

Enhanced runoff and sediment transport are likely below recent burn
areas, but debris flows are not expected. Watch for additional rises
near Christmas Eve and possible flooding concerns especially in
drainages with large mountain drainages below about 6,000 feet, like
the Susan River for example.

You can find river forecasts updated twice daily at:
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

-Tim/Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday NVZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Monday NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM PST Monday
     NVZ002.

     High Wind Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday NVZ003.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday NVZ004.

CA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon CAZ071-
     072.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday CAZ071.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Monday CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM PST Monday
     CAZ072-073.

     High Wind Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday CAZ073.

&&

$$